GMT EIGHT - Economy&politics - America

BlackRock shifts towards over-allocated stocks! Shout for the return of risk appetite and tightly grasp the direction of semiconductors, energy independence, and power infrastructure.

BlackRock's official weekly report explicitly states that the institution has reallocated its position on US stocks, as well as South Korean, Chinese, and Taiwanese stocks, and even the overall emerging market stock allocation back to overweight. Recently, top Wall Street institutions including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have become more optimistic on the outlook for the future stock market at the margin.

"Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Powell submits financial disclosure documents; confirmation hearing may start next week."

The nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, has submitted the necessary financial disclosure documents to the Senate, taking an important step forward in the confirmation process.

Strategist: Trump orders lockdown of Hormuz Strait, the US dollar strengthens, but upward potential may be limited.

President Trump ordered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a surge in market risk aversion and driving the US dollar higher.

Rising interest rates drag down housing market recovery, US existing home sales drop to nearly ten-month low.

At the traditional peak of sales season in spring, the US real estate market appears to be weak.

Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to cautiously reduce liquidity support to avoid disrupting the financing market.

Wall Street widely expects that the Federal Reserve will gradually and cautiously reduce the liquidity injection plan used to alleviate funding pressures.

OPEC March crude oil production hits record plunge, downgrades second quarter global oil demand forecast

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) data shows that, due to the impact of conflicts in the Middle East on exports of major member countries, the organization recorded a record drop in oil production last month.

Don't be deceived by appearances! The continuous increase in the US stocks is not a reversal, investors should not blindly chase after higher prices.

Although investors continue to buy, they have not shown the level of enthusiasm typically seen before a true big rebound.

Hormuz Strait standoff escalates: Iran warns Gulf ports in response to US blockade threat

Iran has stated that if its shipping hub is threatened, it will strike all ports in the Persian Gulf and surrounding areas. The standoff in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated further after the United States announced plans to block ships linked to Iran.

US military: will block the Strait of Hormuz, unauthorized vessels are not allowed to pass.

The US military announced that it will implement a blockade in the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. Any ships entering or leaving the blockade area without authorization may be intercepted, redirected, and detained.

Indonesia raised the floor price of nickel ore, combined with the increase in sulfur prices, impacting the nickel processing sector.

Indonesia raises nickel ore benchmark price, processing businesses suffer a blow.

As the financial report season begins, Morgan Stanley is actively optimistic: profit growth will resist the disturbance of the Middle East war, and the U.S. stock market correction is in its final stage.

A strategist at Morgan Stanley stated that the accelerating profits of companies are protecting the S&P 500 index from experiencing a larger decline, while also masking a broader correction in the US stock market.

Iran situation exacerbates energy worries, EU to introduce new policy on reducing fees and taxes.

The European Commission plans to propose reducing energy taxes and grid fees to promote the adoption of clean energy technologies, while also mitigating the impact of soaring oil and gas prices.

Central bank's interest rate hike window faces new variables: US-Iran confrontation escalation pushes up oil prices, and Ueda reverses course emphasizing uncertainty.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, in one of the few communication windows before this month's policy meeting, released a signal of greater caution towards raising interest rates by adjusting his wording.

Hormuz Strait confrontation escalates! Three oil tankers attempt to pass before Trump's "blockade order" takes effect, escalating the risk of rising oil prices.

For the global energy market which is already facing severe supply interruptions, the only way out in the short term is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the game between the United States and Iran for control of the Strait of Hormuz means that the strait will not be able to return to normal navigation in the short term, which will lead to sustained high oil prices.

Energy costs skyrocket hitting European chemical companies hard! First quarter financial results may come under pressure collectively.

European chemical companies that have been severely impacted by the Middle East war are expected to announce weak first quarter performance.

Iran situation is difficult to calm down! Trump warning: Oil prices may remain high before the November midterm elections.

Trump said that oil and gasoline prices may remain high before the mid-term elections in November.

Middle East conflict disrupts energy lifelines, Saudi Arabia may "slash" crude oil exports in May.

Due to the disruption of maritime logistics caused by the Middle East war and the increase in prices, Saudi Arabia is expected to halve its oil exports to its largest importer, China, next month.

Oil prices have surged again, breaking the hundred mark. But this time, why isn't the market "turning pale at the mention of war"?

Geopolitical shocks are still important, but they no longer trigger the panic selling seen in the early stages of conflict.

Another member joins the bullish camp for Wall Street gold! UBS Bank increases its position and reiterates a target price of $6,000.

After cutting positions following a drop in gold prices caused by the Middle East war, RuiLian Bank has resumed buying gold and believes that the long-term prospects for gold remain solid. The bank still expects gold prices to rise to $6,000 per ounce by the end of this year.

Experts warn: US military blockade of Hormuz Strait is "too crazy", oil prices may soar to $150.

If the United States goes ahead with its plan to impose a maritime blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could skyrocket to $150 per barrel.

The Hormuz crisis reshapes the metal pricing logic! Stagnant inflation clouds drag down copper prices, aluminum market faces supply panic.

In this round of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the Middle East smelting and logistics chain is the one directly hit, accounting for about 10% of the global primary aluminum production.

"Black Monday" specter: Funds pouring madly into the US dollar, Australian dollar, Rand plummeting by 1%, stock market and crude oil sharply diverging.

Due to the failure of the United States and Iran to reach a peace agreement over the weekend, the US dollar strengthened against major currencies in early trading.

Citi Outlook: Active ETF shares double in ten years, driving the US ETF assets towards a $25 trillion era by 2030.

According to the latest outlook report from Citibank, by the end of this decade, the assets under management in the Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) industry in the United States may more than double.

Inflation "reignites"! The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations shatters expectations of a rate cut, prompting bond traders to urgently delay expectations of a rate cut until 2027.

The failure of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran further shifted the focus of the bond market towards inflation and reinforced expectations that interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time.

Skyrocketing energy prices are hammering the confidence of UK businesses! The lowest reading in six years sounds the alarm for "cost cutting and cash preservation."

Confidence of large British businesses falls to six-year low, Deloitte survey shows.

Former Bank of Japan official: The usual practice during periods of turmoil is to "stay put", and the outcome of the April meeting is uncertain.

During uncertain times, the Bank of Japans usual strategy is to adopt a wait-and-see approach, making it difficult to predict the outcome of the policy meeting scheduled for April 28th of this month.

Sun Yuchen criticized the Trump family project, World Liberty caught in investor "rebellion" storm.

The Trump family's cryptocurrency project, World Liberty Financial Inc., is facing an investor "rebellion," including support from billionaire supporter Justin Sun.

Middle East conflict escalation rekindles inflation fears, Japanese 10-year government bond yields surge to new highs since 1997.

With Trump's announcement that the United States will implement a comprehensive naval blockade on the strategic Strait of Hormuz, tensions in the Middle East have further escalated, causing Japan's 10-year government bond yields to climb to their highest level since 1997.

High oil prices are squeezing the profit margins of Japanese companies: analysts have significantly reduced profit forecasts for 113 Japanese listed companies.

With the dramatic changes in the global energy market, the Japanese capital market is facing its most severe earnings forecast revision since the middle of last year.

The US stock earnings season kicks off amid the turmoil of Middle East conflicts! The profitability of banks, technology, and consumer sectors will determine the fate of the bull market.

Ceasefire can hardly conceal the big profit test! The earnings season coincides with the surge in oil prices, and the prospects of banks, technology, and consumption have become the strongest narrative for trading in the US stock market.

The second largest bill in history is coming: Goldman Sachs expects CTAs to buy $45 billion in the week, has the technical bottom of the US stock market been established?

The Goldman Sachs model shows that commodity trading advisors (CTA) will buy approximately 45 billion US dollars worth of US stocks in the next week, with around 34 billion US dollars focused on the S&P 500 index.

US-Iran talks breakdown spurs demand for safe haven: US dollar single-handedly supports safe harbor, gold plunges, inflation dilemma hits hard with a 3% decline.

As the marathon-style peace negotiations between the US and Iran broke down, the US announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Global financial markets plunged into intense volatility as the new week began. The US dollar surged significantly as investors sought safe-haven assets, while gold plummeted under the dual pressures of rising inflation expectations and a shift in central bank policies.

The situation in Iran escalates and reconstructs market logic, with US bond yields breaking through 4.2%. Investors are caught in a dilemma of "stepping into the void vs. collapse" before the earnings season.

After the failure of Iran's peace negotiations, the possibility of further escalation of the Iran war has emerged, causing tumult in the global financial markets.

From the ceasefire frenzy to the "stagflation" storm sweeping once again, the narrative of the bull market in stocks and bonds faces a major test.

Multiple clear signs indicate that global inflation is heating up, and even the expectation of "stagflation" is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The "Higher-for-Longer" narrative is making it clear that the recent rally in stocks and bonds driven by the prospect of a ceasefire between the US and Iran is facing a major test.

Negotiations collapsed, and the Strait of Hormuz is closed! The US launches a blockade order in the Gulf of Hormuz. Brent oil breaks through the $103 barrier and European natural gas skyrockets by 18%.

As the United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement after marathon negotiations in Pakistan, the US immediately announced a comprehensive blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a severe impact on the global energy supply chain. As a result, oil and natural gas prices soared significantly.

The new earnings season for US stocks kicked off this week: US-Iran negotiations collapse, can the financial reports of banking giants boost market sentiment?

The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran started on the morning of the 11th and ended after three rounds lasting 21 hours, with no agreement reached by both sides.

Talks between the US and Iran have broken down, and two super tankers have turned around in the Strait of Hormuz.

On April 12th, it was reported that two empty super oil tankers suddenly turned around after reaching a key checkpoint near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, with the timing coinciding with the announcement of the breakdown of negotiations between US and Iran representatives in Islamabad.

When the market focuses on the US-Iran negotiations, a competition for oil is taking place, "the oil shortage in the coming weeks will be very huge."

When the futures market is still betting on a ceasefire, the spot crude oil has already lost control. In the North Sea market, there were 40 buy orders corresponding to only 4 sell orders. The spot Brent once touched a historical peak of $144, exceeding the futures premium by over $30.

Iranian-American negotiations for 14 hours were "fruitless," but will continue on the 12th. Iran rejects the US proposal of "joint management of the Strait of Hormuz." Trump stated, "I don't care whether an agreement is reached or not."

Iran and the United States negotiations held in the capital of Pakistan, Islamabad, have reached a deadlock, with sharp differences on three major core issues, the direction of the situation in the Middle East remains highly uncertain.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) develops its own chips, leading to a major breakthrough.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has sent a letter to shareholders about the company's custom chip business, expressing strong optimism about the company's internal infrastructure stack.

Iranian media: Iran-US negotiations extended by one day, will continue on the 12th.

Iranian media reported early on the 12th that the negotiations between Iran and the United States in the Pakistani capital Islamabad have been extended for one day and will continue on the 12th.

China Securities Co., Ltd.: Has the bottom of US technology stocks been reached?

One important characteristic of the current decline in US stocks is that technology stocks are leading the adjustment.

The United States courts will reexamine Trump's 10% global tariff, facing a legality test.

According to reports, the US Trade Court has initiated a judicial review of President Trump's invocation of section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% import tariff. The judge sharply questioned: the trade deficit is not the same concept as the statutory "balance of international payments", and the provision comes from the gold standard era, with its applicability no longer existing after the US dollar decoupled from gold.

The US denies agreeing to unfreeze assets, while Iran says the conditions for negotiations have not been met.

US officials deny reports that the US has agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets. Earlier, it was reported that a senior Iranian official said the US had agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets frozen in Qatar and other foreign banks. A Pakistani government official said that the negotiation process between Iran and the US is slower than expected and may take longer. Currently, it seems that the US is eager to achieve a certain goal, while Iran is not in a hurry to reach an agreement.

The Japanese government is stepping up its support for "Japanese version of TSMC", with a total investment of 16 billion US dollars to help Rapidus enter the AI chip market.

Japan invests $16 billion to help start-up company Rapidus enter the field of artificial intelligence chips.

Aluminum prices continue to rise? Supply disruptions persist fermenting, Middle East's largest aluminum producer EGA suspends partial deliveries due to "force majeure".

Top aluminum producer in the Gulf region, EGA, announced that some contracts have been affected by force majeure.

After the "ceasefire", the stock market has surged, but Wall Street's expectations have already changed.

Major institutions on Wall Street have generally raised their expectations for inflation, pushed back their timetable for interest rate cuts, and become more cautious in their allocation of risk assets. BlackRock has adjusted its risk assets from overweight to neutral, while Wells Fargo has lowered its S&P 500 target price to 7300 points. Most institutions are currently maintaining their target prices, but lack confidence, with a widespread belief that there is still significant uncertainty in the current situation.

Anthropic releases network security recommendations and promises to continuously update guidance as the project progresses.

Anthropic posted on his Claude blog, listing seven network security recommendations: shrinking vulnerability patching window, preparing for handling significantly increased vulnerability reports, checking for vulnerabilities before going live, scanning existing code for vulnerabilities, designing systems with the mindset of "assume breached", reducing and refining external exposure, and compressing event response time.

Official warning signal! Fed and Treasury take action against private lending crisis.

The Federal Reserve is requesting details on the risk exposure of American banks to private lending companies.

Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will be "soon" reopened.

On the 10th, US President Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz will be "quickly" opened regardless of "whether or not Iran cooperates", and said that the primary task of the US negotiating team is to ensure that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons.

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