GMT EIGHT - Economy&politics - America

100 billion is simply not enough to distribute! Investors are rushing to add to Anthropic, and the frenzy of oversubscription is pushing funding to 20 billion US dollars.

The artificial intelligence startup Anthropic PBC is finalizing the last details of a round of funding that may raise over 2 billion dollars and is expected to be completed as early as next week.

The Federal Reserve's Daly warns of vulnerability in the labor market, says it may be necessary to cut interest rates one to two more times this year.

Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that, due to the vulnerability in the labor market, it may be necessary to cut interest rates one or two more times.

Choose a Fed chairman who is "willing to lower interest rates", the history of American presidents has always been "difficult to fulfill their wishes"!

Wash's nomination itself is in the midst of policy tensions. He has been known for his hawkish stance for many years, constantly warning that loose policies could lead to inflation risks, but now he has been nominated for expressing a tendency to cut interest rates to the President. Despite current inflation still being higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This change in stance may lead him to face questions about his true policy intentions within the Federal Open Market Committee.

SpaceX delays Mars mission, focusing on moon landing instead.

SpaceX has informed investors that they will prioritize the lunar mission, with the Mars trip being delayed to the future. Another source has claimed that SpaceX's goal is to achieve an unmanned moon landing in March 2027.

Rate Cut Expectations Rise Again, $30 Trillion US Bond Market to Face "Data Week" Test

After experiencing a mild increase for a week, the US Treasury market with a scale of up to 30 trillion US dollars is facing a series of critical macroeconomic data tests.

Bitcoin experiences a "roller coaster" market, with intense fluctuations reigniting speculative enthusiasm. Analysts believe that it may be difficult for Bitcoin to return to its previous highs in the short term.

Bitcoin is regaining its coveted status as a "darling" among high-risk speculative traders, and this sharp rebound is quickly transmitting to the stock price performance of listed companies with a core strategy of hoarding coins.

The Dow breaks 50,000 points for the first time, hitting a new all-time high. Analysts: The market has adjusted to global uncertainty, investor confidence is real.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average first crossed the 50,000 mark, closing at 50,115.67 points, hitting a new all-time high.

American consumer confidence rises to a six-month high: producers warming up, non-producers under pressure.

US consumer confidence unexpectedly rebounded in February, reaching its highest level in the past six months, mainly benefiting from the improved confidence of high-income individuals due to the rising stock market and asset prices.

From "software doomsday theory" to the shadow of bad debts, private credit and BDC are experiencing a "collective panic sell-off".

This global stock market crash began with a downturn in software technology stocks, and is now affecting financial companies that invest in and lend to software manufacturers. These software manufacturers are believed to be facing extremely negative impacts from the development of artificial intelligence.

Bull market engine backlash the market, the digital asset treasury company faces a life-or-death test.

The listed company of digital asset treasury is changing from being a market booster last year to a potential source of systemic risk.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) leads the explosive growth! Global semiconductor industry revenue will break the trillion-dollar mark for the first time this year.

Driven by the dual forces of artificial intelligence (AI) development and the widespread penetration of chip technology in various economic sectors, global semiconductor industry revenue is expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time this year.

Midterm election market outbreak is imminent, Bank of America sees potential in small and medium-sized stocks as the new main line of U.S. stocks.

The strategy team of Bank of America stated that with the approach of the US midterm elections, the appeal of technology giants is waning, and US small and mid-cap stocks have become the best investment choice at present.

Positive signals as U.S. stocks pull back: Over 75% of S&P components have seen profit growth, reaching a four-year high.

In the S&P 500 index companies that have already reported their performance, over 75% of the enterprises achieved year-on-year profit growth.

The winning strategy of the US stock market suddenly failed! Momentum trading suffers a historic retreat: funds withdraw from technology and value stocks become the new favorite.

For many years, chasing momentum in the stock market has always been a winning strategy, however, this strategy suddenly failed in the past week.

Global capital flows have changed significantly! The "Anthropic Storm" has devastated technology value stocks, and bond funds have become the "new safe haven".

Due to the pressure of selling technology stocks, the inflow of funds into US stock funds has significantly slowed down.

SpaceX takes control of triangular merger xAI: tax, financial, legal advantages all covered, IPO more stable

In the process of SpaceX's acquisition of xAI, Musk adopted the common two-step merger procedure, which has dual advantages: it not only avoided the repayment of tens of billions of dollars in debt, but also provided tax benefits for shareholders.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Stournaras: Euro exchange rate is manageable, no reason to adjust policy for now.

Although the official statement reiterated the "close monitoring" of exchange rate fluctuations, Greek Central Bank Governor Yannis Stournaras believes that there is no reason for concern.

The order has been scheduled until 2027! The chairman of Wistron, a supplier of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), asserted: AI is not a bubble but the beginning of a new era.

Lin Xianming, chairman of Taiwan's electronic manufacturing company Wistron, said on Friday that artificial intelligence (AI) is not a bubble, and he expects the growth rate of the company's AI-related orders to exceed last year's by 2026.

Shorting against the trend is extremely costly! Asset management giant Carmignac warns: The emerging market bond market is entering a structural bull market.

Carmignac recently issued a warning: traders should think twice before selling emerging market bonds, as funds are preparing to continue pouring into this asset class.

"The end of software stocks ignites a great revolution! After the panic selling, the market will embrace the 'software cornerstone' of the AI era."

Some institutional funds have started to enter the market to bottom-fish and strategically position themselves at a low point. These funds are targeting software stocks that have recently experienced sharp declines, with some seeing their stock prices almost halved. They agree with Huang Renxun's positive outlook on software stocks - that the market has unfairly penalized software giants focusing on "AI+ core operational processes" with strong fundamentals.

Interest rate hikes may not save the bulls either? Australian dollar's highest bullish position in eight years hit by gold price's sudden drop "targeted detonation"

Under the double pressure of the unexpected restart of the interest rate hike cycle by the Australian central bank and the significant fluctuations in the global commodity market, hedge funds that previously had a large bullish position on the Australian dollar are now caught in a complex game.

Bank of Japan board member releases hawkish signal, saying benchmark interest rates still need to be further increased.

A director of the Bank of Japan emphasized that in order to complete the normalization process of monetary policy, the benchmark interest rate still needs to be raised further. This statement may continue to increase market expectations of an early interest rate hike by the central bank.

Former Japanese foreign exchange market officials suggest: to prevent the depreciation of the yen, a combination of measures is needed, unilateral intervention alone is not as effective as "intervention + interest rate hikes" in the long run.

A former senior foreign exchange official in Japan has stated that using foreign exchange reserves for market intervention can have an immediate impact on exchange rates, but if combined with steady interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the effects will be more lasting.

Weak job market lifts expectations of interest rate cuts, US bond yields curve approaching steepest level in four years.

Under the combined impact of increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, sustained inflation, and concerns about fiscal deficits, the yield curve of US Treasury bonds is approaching its steepest level in over four years.

Bitcoin's 60,000 mark is hanging by a thread! Analysts point out that "the bear market has arrived", with zero target prices issuing a pessimistic warning, shaking the market.

The world's largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin experienced "Black Thursday", with the US stock market accelerating its decline to around $63,000 in the final moments on Thursday, with an intraday drop of 12%, hitting a new low since October 2023.

The market is in a state of "mad shock"! Silver plunged more than 20% in two days, setting a record. The South Korean stock market plummeted, exposing the fragility of "high beta".

After a 20% plunge on Thursday, the price of silver continues to probe lower. The South Korean stock market also suffered a heavy setback.

Cryptocurrency plunges trigger a chain storm, "Digital Asset National Bond Corporation" collectively "scapegoats" as stock prices plummet.

Once, stockpiling cryptocurrencies was an unknown company's "killer move" to boost stock prices. Now, this strategy has become a heavy burden dragging down market value.

S&P 500 critical technical defense line in emergency! With the bears raging, the army of bottom fishers is closely watching the next support level.

The spiral escalation of the technology stock sell-off is pushing the S&P 500 index to the brink of a key trend line. Traders are carefully studying charts, trying to determine how much further this stock market "barometer" will fall.

Weak employment data triggers a "safe haven tsunami"! US Treasury yield posts biggest drop in several months, rate cut expectations brought forward to June.

The signs of weakness in the U.S. job market have intensified the decline in U.S. stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, prompting investors to increase their bets on the Federal Reserve's loose policy. U.S. Treasury bonds have risen sharply, with yields posting their biggest decline in several months.

The number of job vacancies in the United States has dropped to a five-year low, intensifying signals of a cooling labor market.

Evidence of a cooling trend in the U.S. labor market further emerges.

The encrypted market is undergoing a new round of bloodshed! Bitcoin breaks the 70,000 mark, Strategy (MSTR.US) Q4 net loss reaches 1.24 billion US dollars.

Against the backdrop of sustained pressure on global technology stocks, cryptocurrencies are facing a new round of concentrated selling.

Do not rush to cut interest rates before inflation falls back, Federal Reserve officials once again release a "wait and see" signal.

Multiple officials reiterated that maintaining interest rates at their current levels is still the preferred option until inflation has steadily returned to the target level.

European Central Bank remains unchanged. Lagarde: Forecasting Euro's strength, AI investment aids growth.

The European Central Bank on Thursday kept interest rates unchanged as scheduled, without giving a clear signal on the next steps of its policy direction, reinforcing market expectations of stability in monetary policy for a period of time.

Inflation meets targets but interest rates are not lowered! The European Central Bank remains "unmoved" for the fifth consecutive time, possibly entering a long-term "observation period" in 2026.

The European Central Bank announced that it will maintain the three key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit facility rate, the main refinancing rate, and the marginal lending rate locked at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively.

SpaceX, aiming at the vast starry sky, sets its sights on smartphones! "Starlink direct terminal" may bring communication into the satellite era.

SpaceX's cash cow Starlink may soon enter the smartphone market.

The US job market is facing a cold winter! Layoffs in January surged by 118%, reaching a new high for the same period since the Great Recession in 2009.

The number of layoffs announced by American companies in January reached the highest record since the Great Recession in 2009.

Blizzard hits job market, US initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 231,000 last week.

Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States exceeded market expectations, which may have been influenced by severe snowstorms in multiple regions across the country. However, the overall condition of the US labor market remains stable.

Morgan Stanley quantifies warning: Momentum collapse, mass selling of leveraged ETFs in US stocks, and few retail investors are picking up the pieces!

Momentum trading in US stocks has suffered a reversal, with popular sectors such as AI experiencing significant declines. Yesterday, crowded long positions in US stocks were heavily sold off, triggering a VaR impact that led to fund liquidation and leveraged ETF rebalancing, resulting in continued selling pressure in the billions. Combined with a lack of retail buying before tax season, Goldman Sachs recommends selling on rebounds. According to Goldman Sachs statistics, after a single-day sharp drop in momentum of a similar intensity, there is a high probability of stock price declines in the next 1-2 months.

Software stocks enter a "brutal liquidation period"! $2 trillion market value evaporates, hedging costs soar to highest level since 2020.

The continuous wave of selling in software stocks has made technology investors increasingly anxious, to the point where they are starting to pay a premium to purchase hedging tools to prevent another sharp decline in stock prices.

Bitcoin falls below $70,000: a 45% drop from its peak, panic selling triggers "forced deleverage".

The price of Bitcoin officially fell below the key psychological level of $70,000, briefly dipping to $69,271, hitting a new low since November 2024.

The Bank of England, as expected, "stands pat," however, a 5:4 vote split ignites further speculation of a rate cut.

The Bank of England came close to announcing a rate cut in its vote, and forecasted that inflation will soon fall below its target. This outcome was much more dovish than expected, reigniting hopes for a rate cut next month.

The US is rallying allies to establish a trade protection zone, intending to use tariffs to set a price floor for rare earth elements.

On Wednesday, Vice President Pence announced a new initiative to stabilize the critical rare earth market prices in the United States, stating that the Trump team will use their common tariff measures to achieve this goal.

British political storm ignites sell-off: pound falls to two-week low, long-term British bond risk premium soars.

The new round of political turmoil in the UK on Thursday spilled over into the country's financial markets, dealing a heavy blow to the British pound and long-term bonds.

Geopolitical upheavals affecting asset allocations! Markets Pulse survey: Safe-haven attributes of US bonds are diminishing, consensus forming on stocks being strong while bonds are weak.

The latest Markets Pulse survey shows that the majority of respondents believe that, in the context of international policy dynamics dominating the market, stocks will outperform bonds after adjusting for volatility.

UK construction PMI for January rebounds better than expected, industry confidence improves.

The UK's January Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 40.1 in December of last year to 46.4, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of 42.0.

"At the time when the 'software stock doomsday' discourse is sweeping Wall Street, the growth narrative of 'AI reshaping software profits' is quietly spreading."

"Software-mageddon" has investors picking up bargains while staying vigilant. As the pessimistic sentiment of "software stock doomsday" sweeps across Wall Street, Anthropic is leading AI "application layer invasion", causing the software sector to evaporate $800 billion in a week. However, is the second half of the profit curve for SaaS and the entire software industry being reassessed?

Nvidia's strong demand for servers remains unabated, while Hon Hai Precision's January revenue increased by 35.5% year-on-year.

Hongteng Precision (06088) saw a 35.5% increase in revenue in January, indicating that the demand for NVIDIA (NVDA.US) servers remains strong amidst the global wave of artificial intelligence development.

"Timely rain" before the general election! Strong demand for 30-year Japanese government bonds auction eases market selling pressure.

The auction for Japan's 30-year government bonds saw strong demand, easing market tensions.

European Central Bank interest rate decision tonight! Expected to hold steady for the fifth consecutive time, geopolitical tensions and a strong Euro are the biggest concerns.

Although the recent global tensions have intensified and the euro has strengthened, the European Central Bank judges that these factors have not yet derailed the economy, and is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time at this policy meeting.

Silver suffers "avalanche-like" selling again, plunging 17% intraday, erasing two days of gains! Gold also drops simultaneously, with precious metals collectively losing luster.

On Thursday, the price of silver plummeted significantly, erasing all the gains from the previous two trading days. After experiencing a historic market crash, this white metal still struggles to find a bottom support, with gold prices also declining in sync.

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