CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rates of global AI CAPEX in 2025 and 2026 will be +64% and +50% respectively.

CITIC Securities pointed out that in the second quarter of 2025, the overall operating conditions of technology giants were significantly better than the previously cautious market expectations. The momentum of cloud business growth is also more significant, and with the increasing penetration rate of AI applications, the trend of computing power demand exceeding supply continues. In addition, the "big and beautiful" tax reform bill in the United States has brought incremental free cash flow, jointly driving the upward revision of overall capital expenditure guidance for 2025 and a more positive outlook for CAPEX in 2026. We estimate that the year-on-year growth rates of global AI CAPEX in 2025/2026 are +64%/50%, respectively. At the same time, we closely monitor the impact of tariffs on the global macroeconomy, the monetization progress of AI in the second half of 2025, and the implementation of tax incentives under the "big and beautiful" bill. In the field of AI computing power, we continue to recommend commercial GPU, ASIC, storage, network equipment, and other sub-sectors.