Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures are mixed, with PCE data set to be released soon and Micron's (MU.US) earnings due after the bell.

Premarket Market Moves 1. On Wednesday, September 30, before the U.S. stock market opened, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.01%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.03%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.09%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was down 0.13%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 0.07%, France's CAC 40 was down 0.53%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was down 0.28%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil was up 1.51% at $90.73 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 1.76% at $97.85 per barrel. Market News U.S. August PCE may pour cold water again! Core inflation is expected to remain stubborn, and evidence for the Fed to "not need to hike again" may be hard to find. According to market forecasts, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - both headline PCE and core PCE, which excludes food and energy costs, are expected to rise 0.3% month over month in August. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE is expected to rise 3.7%, and core PCE is expected to rise 3.3%, both unchanged from July and still far above the Fed's 2% target. In other words, there are few signs that inflation will fade in the near term. This means that after the September rate hike, the debate over whether to act again in October or December will only intensify. U.S. mortgage rates rose for a sixth straight week, dealing a heavy blow to refinancing and home purchase demand. The seasonally adjusted index from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a 6% drop in weekly mortgage demand. Last week, the average contract rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages conforming to standard loan balance requirements rose to 7.30% from 7.12%. For loans with a 20% down payment, points, including loan origination fees, rose to 0.75 from 0.73. Refinancing demand was hit hardest, because very few borrowers can benefit in the current higher-rate environment. Refinance applications fell 9% for the week and were 56% lower than a year earlier. Refinancing fell to 38.3% of total mortgage activity from 39.3% the previous week. MBA economist Joel Kan said in a statement: "Government-backed refinance activity fell 13%, with both FHA and VA loan applications posting double-digit weekly declines." JP Morgan: Middle East oil exports have recovered to 90% of pre-war levels. JPMorgan's latest report shows that Middle East oil exports are rebounding rapidly as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline resumes operation. Over the past five days, the 10-day average of regional crude and refined product exports held at about 20.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 89% of normal 2025 levels and only about 11% below pre-war levels. However, the recovery is uneven. Crude exports have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels, indicating that the crude market has largely returned to normal; refined product exports remain at only about 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to 58% of normal levels, with supply constraints for diesel, jet fuel and other products still evident. JPMorgan emphasized that the recovery in transportation does not mean the security situation has improved. More accurately, the energy industry has become increasingly able to maintain operations in a persistently high-risk environment. The largest remaining gap in the Middle East oil market has shifted from crude to refined products. Iran says it has received the U.S. response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On the 30th local time, Iranian government spokesperson Mohajerani said that at the day's cabinet meeting, Foreign Minister Araghchi reported on his trip to New York and a series of meetings held there, including Iran's proposal submitted to the United States through mediators regarding conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Araghchi said Iran had received the U.S. response to the proposal. Iran did not disclose further details for now. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 28th that Iran had proposed through Qatari mediators conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and advancing negotiations, and that Qatar would relay the plan to the United States, with Iran awaiting a formal U.S. response. On the same day, U.S. President Trump confirmed that the United States and Iran had exchanged information through mediators, but denied reports that he was willing to conditionally lift sanctions on Iran. Several U.S. tech companies signed a voluntary AI safety agreement. Heads of several U.S. technology companies signed a document at the White House on September 29 local time titled the "White House Superintelligence Agreement: Joint Commitment on Frontier Responsibility." The agreement requires companies to commit to strengthening safety controls for frontier AI models. Participating companies will also meet regularly to study and formulate relevant standards and industry norms. Individual Stock News Wall Street holds its breath: Will Micron's (MU.US) earnings bring a surprise? Driven strongly by the AI wave, Micron Technology, Inc. is about to release its highly anticipated latest earnings after the bell on Wednesday, and the market widely expects it to deliver strong results. According to Visible Alpha forecasts, Micron Technology, Inc.'s fourth-quarter revenue is expected to reach $50.95 billion, up 350% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $31.63, more than 10 times the year-ago level. JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur pointed out that investors should pay more attention to possible "surprises" from management - for example, a large new capital return plan, which usually means substantial share buybacks or higher dividend payouts. Micron was up 0.3% premarket. Report says Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) will make a major push into the smart home market. According to reports, Apple Inc. plans to make a major push into the smart home market on October 13, marking a key expansion of its product line under new CEO Ternus. People familiar with the matter said the strategy centers on a smart home hub device codenamed J490. Apple Inc. also plans to release the first update to the HomePod mini since its debut in 2020, as well as its first new Apple TV set-top box since 2022. These products will also showcase the new Siri AI assistant that Apple Inc. has spent years developing. The release of the upgraded Siri has been delayed multiple times, and these smart home devices are expected to highlight Apple Inc.'s efforts to catch up in AI. People familiar with the matter said the home hub device will feature an approximately 6-inch square display and will be offered in wall-mounted and desktop versions; the new HomePod mini and Apple TV will retain their current designs but carry faster processors to support Siri's more powerful AI models. Report: Meta (META.US) seeks large R&D tax credits through AI data centers. Meta is using the U.S. research and experimentation tax credit to seek billions of dollars in tax benefits for its AI data centers. The company has described multibillion-dollar data center projects as "experimental research activities" and said AI computing chips purchased from suppliers such as NVIDIA Corporation are inputs to experimental projects and therefore qualify for the credit. Documents show that last year the policy helped Meta reduce its tax burden by nearly $4 billion, making it one of the largest beneficiaries of the tax credit among public companies. However, Meta's internal accountants have warned that the approach carries legal risk and that the IRS may challenge the claims. Andre Shevchuck, a partner at tax advisory firm BPM, said classifying AI data centers as experimental R&D projects is "outside the norm." The IRS has also previously scrutinized companies' efforts to include ordinary business expenses in the R&D credit. Meta was down 0.4% premarket. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) signs $30 billion financing arrangements, including revolving credit and delayed draw loans. According to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) entered into multiple financing arrangements, including a $20 billion three-year delayed draw term loan facility, an $8 billion five-year revolving credit facility, and a $2 billion 364-day revolving credit facility. The filing showed that Tesla, Inc. also terminated its existing revolving credit agreement. The new five-year revolving credit facility allows for letters of credit of up to $500 million, and the three-year delayed draw term loan facility matures on September 29, 2029. In addition, Tesla, Inc.'s revolving credit facility can be increased by up to $4 billion, to $14 billion. Tesla, Inc. was down 0.6% premarket. AI computing power battle escalates! Anthropic discloses an $84.5 billion agreement, far above May estimates; SpaceX (SPCX.US) AI growth engine accelerates again. According to reports, Anthropic, a global leader in large AI models and AI applications, has signed an agreement to pay up to $84.5 billion to use AI computing resources through 2029 from SpaceX (SPCX.US), the AI and space exploration leader founded and led by Musk. This also means Anthropic agreed to pay SpaceX nearly twice the previously estimated computing fee, highlighting that the faster model commercialization progresses, the more strategically valuable a computing cluster that can be delivered on time and operate stably becomes. This amount is far higher than the scale of the agreement disclosed in May this year. SpaceX disclosed in its IPO filing that Anthropic agreed to pay $1.25 billion per month for AI computing power for up to three years. The agreement can be canceled with 90 days' notice. If fully performed over three years, the total amount would be about $45 billion. Boeing Company (BA.US) wins again: defeats Northrop Grumman (NOC.US) to secure the U.S. Navy's sixth-generation F/A-XX order, with a $20 billion development contract. The U.S. Department of Defense said on Tuesday that Boeing Company (BA.US) has been selected to build the U.S. Navy's next-generation stealth fighter. This is the second consecutive major fighter contract for Boeing Company and ends a project delayed for months that is crucial to the U.S. strategy in The Pacific. Boeing Company defeated rival Northrop Grumman (NOC.US) for the development contract. The contract is worth $20 billion for producing test aircraft. As production ramps up and potential overseas customers place orders, the program could grow to hundreds of billions of dollars over its full life cycle. Boeing Company was up more than 2% premarket. Robinhood (HOOD.US) launches another innovative product: weekend stock trading, performance contracts and crypto perpetual futures. Robinhood plans to launch weekend stock trading, the first such case in the modern U.S. market. The brokerage, which was an early mover in extending retail trading hours, said on Tuesday that its customers will soon be able to trade a selected basket of stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on weekends, further extending the current trading session from 8 p.m. ET Sunday to 8 p.m. ET Friday into the weekend. The feature will be enabled by routing orders to a trading venue operated by Bruce Markets. Robinhood Chief Brokerage Officer Steve Quirk said in a statement: "Breaking news doesn't wait for the opening bell." Robinhood was up 2.7% premarket. Key Economic Data and Event Preview Beijing time 20:15 U.S. September ADP employment change Beijing time 20:30 U.S. August personal spending month over month, U.S. August PCE price index year over year, U.S. August core PCE price index year over year, U.S. second-quarter real GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter final reading, U.S. second-quarter GDP price index quarter-over-quarter final reading, U.S. second-quarter core PCE price index annualized quarter-over-quarter final reading, U.S. second-quarter consumer spending annualized quarter-over-quarter final reading, U.S. second-quarter GDP implicit price deflator quarter over quarter, U.S. August wholesale inventories month over month preliminary Beijing time 21:45 U.S. September Chicago PMI Beijing time 22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ended September 25, U.S. EIA gasoline inventory change for the week ended September 25, U.S. EIA distillate inventory change for the week ended September 25, U.S. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory for the week ended September 25, U.S. EIA weekly crude oil import change for the week ended September 25 Beijing time next day 01:30 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin gives welcome remarks at an event Beijing time next day 03:25 Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks Beijing time next day 04:00 Micron releases earnings after the U.S. stock market close Beijing time next day 05:10 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks Beijing time next day 06:00 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks