Midland Realty: Hong Kong private housing supply over the next decade to stay at historic lows, with new housing concentrated in public housing

Midland Realty: Hong Kong private housing supply over the next decade to stay at historic lows, with new housing concentrated in public housing The Hong Kong government's 2026 Annual Progress Report on the Long Term Housing Strategy states that the total housing supply target for the next ten years is 420,000 units, of which the private housing supply target is 126,000 units. Midland Realty analyst Cen Songqian believes this means the average annual private residential unit supply target from land sales over the next decade will be about 12,600 units, unchanged for two consecutive years, a sharp decrease of about 37% from the past peak of about 20,000 units, remaining at a record low. The ten-year supply target under the Long Term Housing Strategy is not a rigid annual upper limit on government land supply. In recent years, the Hong Kong government has actively created land and accelerated housing development, and often adjusts according to market needs. In some years, actual supply was even higher than the original target, as was especially evident in 25/26, 22/23, and 21/22. The land sale plan for the first half of this fiscal year (April to September) is even more prominent. In just half a year, the land provided can already build 12,430 units, close to the full-year supply target of 12,600 units. It is believed that actual supply this fiscal year is expected to exceed the target again, further confirming the government's determination to accelerate land supply. Cen Songqian continued that since the new supply ratio of public and private housing was adjusted to 70:30 in 19/20, the proportion of private housing in overall new housing has decreased. According to data, in the seven years from 19/20 to 25/26, the average annual number of units that could be built on land actually absorbed was about 14,670, a decrease of about 25% from the average of about 19,460 per year in the previous seven years (12/13 to 18/19). As the proportion of private residential supply in overall new housing decreases, it reflects that current housing policy is more focused on increasing public housing supply to meet society's urgent demand for public housing. In long-term housing supply planning, the Northern Metropolis has become an important source of future supply. As infrastructure, transportation, and community facilities in the Northern Metropolis gradually improve, housing supply in the district will help meet future population growth and housing demand, and also provide living space for innovation and technology, industrial development, and talent attraction.