Microsoft Corporation and NVIDIA Corporation's major orders provide strong support! JPMorgan is bullish on IREN (IREN.US), which is pivoting from mining to AI infrastructure, to hit $24 billion in revenue, and has upgraded it by multiple notches to "Overweight."

IREN (IREN.US), which has successfully transformed from a Bitcoin mining company into a large-scale AI data center operator, recently received a strong bullish stance from Wall Street financial giant JPMorgan. IREN's investment narrative is shifting from "Bitcoin prices determine mining farm returns" to "power resources, computing power delivery, and long-term contracts jointly determine growth space." JPMorgan's analyst team upgraded the institution's stock rating for IREN by two notches at once, from "Underweight," the most negative rating, directly to "Overweight," skipping over the relatively neutral "Neutral" rating. The price target was raised from $46 to $65, implying approximately 47.3% potential upside over the next 12 months relative to the September 25 closing price of $44.13. JPMorgan's core bullish thesis is that IREN is converting its existing power and data center assets into an AI cloud business backed by major customer contracts. This transformation is already reflected in the revenue mix. IREN's AI cloud services revenue for the quarter ended June 2026 reached $70.5 million, up approximately 110% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing Bitcoin mining revenue of $66.7 million in the same period; full-year AI cloud revenue reached $128.8 million, roughly eight times that of the prior fiscal year. At the same time, the company plans to largely cease mining operations by the end of 2026. A more engineering- and commercially significant development is that Microsoft Corporation has accepted Horizon 1 delivery: this 50-megawatt IT load project is part of the two companies' $9.7 billion, five-year cloud services contract, sufficient to demonstrate that IREN has begun converting infrastructure under construction into large-scale AI computing resources that customers can actually use. The underlying logic behind Bitcoin miners including IREN collectively pivoting to AI is to reconfigure scarce power and site resources and pursue revenue with greater contractual visibility. The land, substation facilities, grid interconnection conditions, and high-power equipment operating experience accumulated over the long term by these large mining farms focused on Bitcoin mining have potential value as AI data center construction cycles lengthen. But different companies choose different business models: Core Scientific mainly provides data halls, power, and related services through high-density hosting, with hosting revenue already accounting for 77% of total revenue in the first half of 2026; IREN goes further by procuring and operating GPUs and developing software and cloud services, seeking to capture revenue at the computing services layer while bearing more equipment investment and platform operating responsibility. A massive $24 billion annual revenue forecast that changes how the market views IREN $24 billion. That is JPMorgan's forecast for the annual revenue that IREN (IREN.US), an emerging AI cloud computing service provider transformed from a Bitcoin miner, will achieve by 2030. This is a Wall Street analyst forecast, not already reported results, nor official company guidance. By comparison, IREN's reported full-year revenue for fiscal 2026 ended June was only about $707 million. The institution's quantitative analysis model estimates that by the end of this decade (i.e., the late 2030s), IREN's AI computing resource capacity will reach approximately 2,065 megawatts. The model assumes revenue of approximately $13 million per megawatt and an EBITDA margin of nearly 65%. Along with this forecast, JPMorgan upgraded the stock rating from "Underweight" by two notches to "Overweight," its most bullish rating, and raised the price target to $65. IREN was originally a Bitcoin miner and is now transforming into a vertically integrated AI cloud service provider controlling power, land, traditional CPU data center resources, high-performance AI GPUs, and cloud computing software. Management expects mining operations to largely cease by the end of December 2026. The new business is already growing rapidly. Fiscal 2026 AI cloud services revenue reached $128.8 million, roughly eight times that of the prior fiscal year. In the quarter ended June, the AI cloud business contributed $70.5 million in revenue, more than double the prior quarter, and milestone-like surpassed Bitcoin mining's $66.7 million. The company has ample physical expansion space. IREN has a data center project pipeline of more than 5 gigawatts across North America, Spain, and Australia. Co-CEO Daniel Roberts described it this way: "This $4 billion of ARR comes from less than 10% of our more than 5 gigawatts of secured grid interconnection resource portfolio." ARR, or annualized recurring revenue, is the annual revenue generated by signed contracts once they are placed into operation. The pricing assumptions are particularly striking. Recently signed three-year contracts correspond to revenue of more than $20 million per megawatt of IT load, and management is currently actively negotiating contracts at approximately $25 million per megawatt of IT load. JPMorgan's assumption of approximately $13 million per megawatt is clearly below these figures. Commentary published with the research report noted that if higher revenue levels were applied to the same megawatt capacity, potential revenue would exceed $50 billion. Public Wall Street earnings forecasts do not extend anywhere near 2030. The consensus average revenue estimate of 16 Wall Street analysts for fiscal 2028 is approximately $7.56 billion. IREN closed at $44.13 on September 25, 2026, down 4.39% on the day and down 5.47% over the week. After multiple research reports were published within a week, neocloud stocks were sold off. Over a longer horizon, the stock rose 11.48% over the past month, 16.83% year-to-date, and fell 4.68% over the past year. Its 52-week range was $28.93 to as high as $76.87, so long-term holders should expect significant stock price volatility. The key bullish logic is that scarce power supply can be quickly converted into contracted revenue. Key contracts supporting this forecast have already been signed one after another. As of August 26, 2026, IREN's ARR was $1 billion, with a target of reaching $4 billion in ARR by December 31, 2026. Its largest customers include U.S. large-cap technology giant Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), with which it signed a $9.7 billion contract; and another major customer that has also placed a strong AI computing resource order with IRENnamely "AI chip superpower" NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), with which it signed a $3.4 billion, five-year AI cloud contract, accompanied by an investment arrangement of up to $2.1 billion by NVIDIA Corporation. Cohere, Perplexity, Figure AI, and an unnamed leading AI lab have also signed on. As Roberts said: "The world's most sophisticated AI infrastructure buyers, and they continue to choose us." Customers are also helping to pay for the massive expansion of AI computing resources. IREN disclosed that committed GPU financing and prepayments reached $14 billion. Customer prepayments currently cover 45%55% of GPU capital expenditures, while 100% of the company's current data centers are unencumbered, meaning these data centers are not used to secure debt. This transformation is costly and is already reflected in the financial numbers. Capital expenditure guidance for fiscal 2027 is $25 billion to $30 billion. The net loss for the quarter ended June was $684 million, including a $450.4 million non-cash impairment from retiring mining hardware. JPMorgan's forecast figures are built on the assumption that IREN can continue to advance execution across all fronts. The key event long-term holders need to watch is that validation through business fundamentals will come soon. The remaining Horizon 2 through 4 deployment units of 50 megawatts each for the Microsoft Corporation project are targeted for delivery in the quarter ending December, while IREN plans to deliver 0.8 gigawatts of IT capacity in 2027. If each deployment converts contracted ARR into reported revenue on schedule, then the path to $24 billion in revenue will become clearer as each megawatt of capacity is delivered. Miners actively compete for the "energization premium": from megawatt reserves to sustainable cash flow This round of value re-rating for Bitcoin miners can, to some extent, be summarized by the "energization premium"that is, companies that can complete grid interconnection, computing power deployment, and customer acceptance earlier have the opportunity to win orders, prepayments, and more favorable financing terms through delivery timing advantages. However, the specialized hash computing chips used in Bitcoin mining machines cannot directly become AI accelerators, and existing mining sites also need to be retrofitted according to specific conditions. AI clusters require computing, memory, storage, and networking to operate in coordination, and high-density racks may also require direct liquid cooling, more complete power redundancy, and operations and maintenance systems. IREN's annual report shows that its platform provides both bare-metal computing and hosted cloud services, and is equipped with high-performance CPUs, storage, and high-speed interconnects. For agent workloads involving multi-round inference, tool execution, and continuous state management, what customers ultimately buy is stable, usable computing services, and power resources are an important foundation for achieving that. Major customer contracts are helping IREN convert construction advantages into financing capacity. In addition to the $9.7 billion contract with Microsoft Corporation, the company also signed a $3.4 billion, five-year AI cloud contract with NVIDIA Corporation. NVIDIA Corporation additionally received a conditional five-year option to purchase up to 30 million shares at $70 per share, corresponding to a potential investment of up to $2.1 billion; this is not a $2.1 billion capital injection that has already been received. On the financing side, the company disclosed that the $3.6 billion GPU financing supporting the Microsoft Corporation project has a weighted average interest rate of approximately 6%, while a $2.4 billion financing supporting deployments for other customers has a fixed rate of 9%, indicating that factors such as customer credit and transaction structure can significantly affect the cost of funds. Customer prepayments in recent contracts are equivalent to 45%55% of related GPU capital expenditures, helping to reduce upfront capital outlays, but prepayments carry future service obligations and do not equal profit. It is understood that, according to IREN's official announcement, the two parties' $3.4 billion, five-year contract involves IREN providing NVIDIA Corporation with hosted GPU cloud services for its internal AI and scientific research workloads, including task orchestration and cluster management software provided in cooperation with Mirantis; the relevant Blackwell systems will be deployed in IREN's existing data center of approximately 60 megawatts at its Childress campus in Texas. From a commercial logic perspective, Microsoft Corporation and NVIDIA Corporation choosing to rent IREN's full service allows them to leverage its ready-made sites, power, and operating capabilities to shorten the construction cycle for obtaining usable computing power. The next market focus will be whether delivery progress allows contracted revenue to begin being recognized on schedule. Horizon 2 through 4 are each 50 megawatts of IT load, totaling the remaining 150 megawatts, targeted for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2026; the 0.8 gigawatts of IT capacity in 2027 is a cumulative delivery target, not 0.8 gigawatts of new additions in that year. Longer-term expansion comes from projects such as Sweetwater: on September 8, the company announced that the 2-gigawatt Sweetwater campus was conditionally included in ERCOT's Batch Zero process; the Sweetwater 1 substation has been energized, but the data center with 300 megawatts of total capacity is still under construction, with a target delivery time of the fourth quarter of 2027, and relevant approval conditions still apply. It is worth noting that recent market disagreement also involves the gap between "owning computing power" and "operating cloud services well." In SemiAnalysis's ClusterMAX 3.0 hosted cluster evaluation released on September 23, IREN was placed in the "underperforming" category, with particular questions raised about the operational reliability of some of its Canadian sites, while the newly built Childress and Sweetwater sites received more positive assessments. This is also why some analysts say that for the "energization premium" to continue translating into valuation support, reliability, customer renewals, and return on capital must all be delivered together.