TrendForce: The total global smartphone production in the first quarter is approximately 284 million units, and production capacity in the second quarter may significantly decrease.

TrendForce's latest research shows that the total global smartphone production in the first quarter of 2026 is approximately 284 million units, a decrease of about 1.7% compared to the same period last year. Despite a significant increase in memory prices starting in the second half of 2025, considering that brands still have low-priced memory inventory and consumer expectations of a significant increase in terminal prices driving demand, the impact of the memory price increase on first-quarter production performance is not significant. However, as some brands' low-priced memory inventory is depleted, and with several consecutive quarters of excessive rise in memory prices affecting the profit structure of brands as a whole, most brands are forced to enter a production adjustment period in the second quarter. Looking ahead to the full year of 2026, TrendForce estimates that the total global smartphone production will decrease to 1.051 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of about 16.2%; in an extreme scenario where memory prices continue to rise unabated, brands may have to continuously increase prices to cope, leading to a further expansion of the year-on-year decline. Different brands have different sales strategies, with brands that have the ability to sell high-end products at a premium and have group resources tending to counter the trend and maintain or even expand market share; on the other hand, brands that mainly target mid-to-low-end products face cost pressures and the double squeeze of market competition, forcing them to adopt more conservative production plans. Each brand has different strategies, with giants like Samsung, Apple, and Huawei expected to grow against the trend Samsung, the top-ranked brand in market share for the first quarter, had a total production of about 62.6 million units in the first quarter; benefiting from the stocking of new models in the Galaxy S series, the production performance in the quarter rose by 7.6% compared to the previous quarter and increased by a slight 2.3% year-on-year. TrendForce believes that Samsung's smartphones will be able to withstand the current price increase cycle with the support of group funds and a significant share of high-end products. However, the proportion of low-end products should also not be overlooked, and the consumer market situation needs to be continuously monitored. Apple's total production in the first quarter was about 60.2 million units. In addition to the support of new models, the launch of the iPhone 17e contributed to the output, leading to a 19.7% increase compared to the same period last year, ranking second in market share. Therefore, despite the high memory prices, compared to other brands already engaged in profit protection battles, Apple can still maintain a certain level of profit. TrendForce believes that Apple is more inclined to expand its market share base in the current environment, laying the foundation for future growth in revenue from paid software. OPPO, Xiaomi, Vivo are steadfast in maintaining profit margins, with the possibility of a significant reduction in production scale OPPO, Xiaomi, and Vivo all experienced seasonal declines in production performance in the first quarter, with OPPO producing approximately 29.5 million units, Xiaomi about 26 million units, and Vivo about 22 million units, ranking third to fifth in market share. Looking at the overall performance of these three major brands this year, they have had impressive market share in the past, but now they are facing profit challenges due to the surge in memory prices, leading to uncertainty in their production plans for 2026. Transsion's total production in the first quarter was approximately 19.8 million units, roughly the same as the same period last year, ranking sixth in market share for the quarter. This brand's smartphone product structure is highly concentrated in entry-level and low-end markets, with already thin profit margins, and limited low-priced inventory, therefore, they are more deeply affected by the super surge in memory prices.