AI computing power shortage has spawned two times bull stock Nebius (NBIS.US) receives a reality check from Goldman Sachs: Expected to reach full capacity, lack of upward momentum.

French bank BNP Paribas has initiated coverage of Dutch artificial intelligence infrastructure service provider Nebius (NBIS.US) for the first time, giving it a "neutral" rating with a target price of $255, citing that the recent surge in the stock price has compressed the upside potential. The analyst team led by Stefan Slovinsky at BNP Paribas stated that Nebius has risen over 210% year-to-date, making it one of the hot targets for market bets on AI computing power scarcity. The analysts added that Nebius has strong execution, holds short-term leasing contracts (benefiting from the rise in GPU leasing prices), and also owns strategic assets with realization value (approximately 25% ownership in ClickHouse), all of which contribute to the increase in the company's valuation. Slovinsky and the team stated, "But our model for Nebius data centers shows that despite recent increases in leasing prices and the product structure benefits from the new generation of NVIDIA Corporation GPUs, the company's 2026 Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) has only a small amount of upside compared to management guidance. The current market pricing implies optimistic expectations of continuous increase in computing power rental rates and flawless operations throughout, therefore, in our view, the short-term risk-reward ratio for this stock is not attractive." BNP Paribas also initiated coverage of Nebius's competitor CoreWeave (CRWV.US) for the first time, giving it an "outperform the market" rating with a target price of $192. Prior to this, investment bank D.A. Davidson also issued a warning on Nebius. Analyst Gill Luria of D.A. Davidson stated, "Since covering Nebius over a year ago, the stock price has significantly outperformed the market, growing from a marginal asset to becoming a core AI trade. Its current premium is reasonable, but it will also suppress short-term gains." D.A. Davidson gave Nebius a "neutral" rating with a target price of $250. In May, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) CFO Colette Kress stated in the company's earnings call, "So far this year, H100 leasing prices have increased by 20%, while A100 cloud service prices have increased by almost 15%." This statement ignited concerns about AI computing power, causing Nebius, CoreWeave, and other AI cloud service providers to surge. As of the close of trading on Tuesday, Nebius fell by 1.49% to $260.58.