China Galaxy Securities: Leading enterprises will lead the mass production of sodium-ion batteries. By 2026, the sodium electric industry is expected to reach an inflection point.

China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that Contemporary Amperex Technology announced that sodium new batteries are expected to be officially mass-produced on a large scale in Q4 2026. With the leading companies in the industry achieving mass production of sodium-ion batteries, it will have a clear driving effect on the entire industry chain. Currently, as lithium and copper prices continue to rise, the economic viability of sodium batteries is rapidly becoming evident. In the future, with capacity expansion, yield improvements, and material cost reductions, the cost curve of sodium batteries is expected to accelerate downward. In terms of the industry chain, the fundamental of lithium battery aluminum foil has already reversed upwards, combined with the logic of "doubling" the usage of sodium batteries and the value enhancement effect brought by new products, the aluminum foil segment is currently entering an upward cycle. The main points of view of China Galaxy Securities are as follows: Leading companies are expected to reach an industrial inflection point in 2026. In 2026, Contemporary Amperex Technology's "Polar Horizon" Super Technology Day, announced that sodium new batteries are expected to be officially mass-produced on a large scale in Q4 2026, with the leading companies in the industry achieving mass production of sodium-ion batteries, which will have a clear driving effect on the entire industry chain. The firm believes that the fields of power, energy storage, and two-wheeled vehicles will be the areas of focus for substantial growth: in terms of power, sodium batteries solve the "northward" difficulty of electrification, combined with the realization of economic viability, the volume of mid- to low-end power is expected; in terms of energy storage, sodium batteries with wide temperature range, high safety, and high discharge power advantages, are expected to see large-scale volume; In the field of two-wheeled vehicles, with the comprehensive advantages of low cost and high performance, sodium batteries are expected to achieve large-scale replacement of lead-acid batteries. The firm expects that the shipments of sodium-ion batteries in 2026, 2027, and 2028 will reach 25, 92, and 221 GWh respectively, with year-on-year growth of 188%, 263%, and 140%, reaching over 600 GWh by 2030. Significant cost advantages in lithium and copper, scaling down costs is key. Since 2026, lithium prices have been continuously rising, while other metals have also seen substantial price increases; combined with the background of the AI era, copper resources are tightening, and copper prices are on a long-term upward trend. Lithium batteries are facing significant supply chain risks and cost pressures. In comparison, the price system of sodium battery raw materials is stable, and sodium resources are widely distributed globally, with crustal abundance about 1,000 times that of lithium. Moreover, sodium-ion batteries, with the design of all-aluminum foil collectors for the positive and negative electrodes, fundamentally break free from the constraints of copper resources, making them an important supplement to future energy strategies. Currently, due to insufficient economies of scale, the cost of sodium-ion batteries (above 0.41 yuan/Wh) is still higher than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries (0.36 yuan/Wh), but with the continuous rise in lithium and copper prices, the economic viability of sodium batteries is rapidly becoming evident, and in the future, with capacity expansion, yield improvements, and material cost reductions, the cost curve of sodium batteries is expected to accelerate downward. In terms of the industry chain, the positive electrode is gradually converging, with hard carbon being the key, and attention to structural opportunities for aluminum foil. In the battery cell segment, leading companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD Company Limited have advantages in customers, supply chain resources, and are expected to quickly capture strategic high ground. In the aluminum foil segment, the industrial development of sodium batteries will bring clear structural incremental opportunities to aluminum foil collectors. Currently, the fundamentals of lithium battery aluminum foil have already reversed upwards, combined with the logic of "doubling" the usage of sodium batteries and the value enhancement effect brought by new products, the aluminum foil segment is currently entering an upward cycle. As for the negative electrode, hard carbon is the current mainstream choice, but it faces challenges such as reliance on imported raw materials and difficulty in consistency control. Domestic companies such as BTR have already made breakthroughs in product performance. As for the positive electrode materials, it is gradually converging into layered oxides and polyanionic two major routes, used in power and energy storage scenarios respectively, currently mainly relying on ternary, iron lithium production lines for combined production, significantly reducing the initial capital expenditure for industrialization. Risk warning Risks including market application falling short of expectations, lithium battery product prices returning to low levels, and core technology progress falling short of expectations.