Trump issues "final ultimatum" to Iran! Middle East situation suddenly tense, crude oil and gold prices both rise.

With the deadline set by US President Trump for negotiations on the Iran nuclear issue, geopolitical risks have sharply increased, driving up international oil prices and gold prices simultaneously. According to reports, Trump stated that Iran has at most 10 to 15 days to reach an agreement on its nuclear program, or else face consequences. This statement marks a significant escalation in US pressure on Iran. At the same time, the US is conducting its largest military deployment in the Middle East since the Iraq war in 2003, which the market interprets as keeping options open for potential ongoing military action. As a result, international oil prices remain stable near six-month highs. At the time of writing, US WTI crude oil futures prices were slightly below $67 per barrel, having accumulated an increase of about 7% in the previous two trading days; Brent crude oil futures closed near $72 per barrel. The main risk facing oil prices is if Iran decides to block the vital Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for Middle East oil exports, which could impact global oil supply. Due to traders continuously evaluating the potential impact of regional conflicts on supply, oil prices have already risen by about 17% this year. Oil production in the region accounts for about one-third of global production, outweighing the pressure on oil prices due to expectations of oversupply by the end of 2025. Citi analysts Anthony Yuen and others stated in a report, "If the conflict with Iran escalates to an interruption in the transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are likely to rise further." They added that their basic forecast did not assume a long-term interruption in this crucial shipping lane. The rising risk premium is also reflected in the crude oil options market. For most of this year, due to the risk of skyrocketing prices, the trading prices for call options have been much higher than put options. On Wednesday, equivalent to 10 million barrels of Brent crude for June at $100 per barrel call options were traded. After data from the US Energy Information Administration showed a decrease of 9 million barrels in crude oil inventories (the largest drop since early September), the bullish momentum strengthened. Finished oil inventories also decreased across the board. Gold, as a traditional safe haven asset, is also performing well, with prices stable near $5,000 per ounce. In the previous two trading days, gold prices had already risen by over 2%. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog warned that the US military deployment indicates that the window for Iran to resolve the nuclear issue through diplomatic means is closing. Market analysts point out that the negotiation window given by the Trump administration is extremely urgent and, accompanied by unprecedented military pressure, evokes memories of the scene prior to the US military strike against Iran in June last year. At that time, Trump also stated "give diplomacy two weeks" but actions began after two days. Currently, though large-scale military action is the focus of discussion, reports indicate that the White House does not rule out limited early strikes to compel the Iranian government to return to the negotiating table. In addition to geopolitics, the uncertainty in the US interest rate path also provides support for gold prices. As lower borrowing costs generally benefit interest-free assets like gold, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction has become another focus of the market. Reports suggest that given recent data showing the US economy performing better than expected, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Mullen has toned down his previous calls for a large rate cut this year. The US dollar index has already risen 0.8% so far this week. Since encountering historic selling at the beginning of this month, the gold market has been extremely volatile. At that time, gold prices dropped sharply from a peak of over $5,595 per ounce to nearly $4,400 in just two days. The speculative buying frenzy that accelerated in January this year brought the longstanding uptrend to a critical moment. However, the fundamental factors that supported the previous rise in gold prices - including funds continuing to leave sovereign bonds and currencies - remain largely stable. Given the tense situation surrounding Iran, the safe-haven value of gold has once again become a focus. After experiencing widespread turmoil, Iranian leaders are deeply concerned about the stability of their regime. If a significant strike is launched against Iran, the US could find itself in its third self-initiated war in the Middle East since 1991.